My genuine fears for Scotland post-referendum

The sun will truly set one way or the other on
September 19th in Scotland.

Four weeks today, Scotland will be at a major crossroad - one direction will lead to independence and another one will lead to remaining within the United Kingdom. Either way, one side of the debate will win and the other will be defeated.

And don't think for a second that this is going to be the first of a series of referenda on Scotland's future. This is a once in a lifetime occasion which will never be repeated. The way the polls are trending at the moment suggests that the result isn't going to be a 70/30 or even a 60/40 split.

For the last few days, the result of people's emotions after the result of the referendum has started to really worry me. Many people have stated their possible intention of quitting Scotland if the result doesn't go the way they want - the results of a recent survey by Panelbase for The Sunday Times and Heart radio station suggested that around 700,000 people in Scotland could emigrate if the referendum ended up with a Yes vote and around 200,000 people in Scotland would quit the country if the result of the referendum was a No. Both figures are not small (link to article from The Scotsman website).

The biggest flaw some people complain about with the upcoming referendum is the fact that there are only two options on the tablet for voters - independence or (arguably) nothing. And the group of voters in particular that will really not appreciate this are those who wanted to vote for a possible third option where it was, for example, "Devolution Plus" or "Devolution Max". What if we end up with a No vote and, after all this long period of time debating, nothing happens? That would go down well with very few people - in June 2012, according to the results of a Ipsos MORI/Reform Scotland survey, only 29% opted for the "status quo" option (link to UK Polling Report website).

Now I know people on the No side insist that more powers will be delivered to the Scottish Parliament under devolution, but how do we really know that is going to definitely happen? The three main pro-union parties at Holyrood have all come up with different ideas and have failed to make a united agreement on what extra powers will be legislated for after the referendum. It could turn out to be their biggest mistake in recent Scottish history and the Better Together side will have nobody but themselves to blame if they lose. However, will it all depend on who wins the 2015 UK General Election? Probably.

On the contrary, it should be asked as to why the Yes side are not leading the polls with just around a month to go. I do not think for a second that anyone within Yes Scotland seem to be panicking at the moment, but time is running out if they want to have enough momentum on their side in order to claim victory. Then again, will they pull off an extraordinary victory? The Scottish National Party certainly did in the 2011 election for the Scottish Parliament, so who knows?

I also felt that the First Minister is still not setting out that unambiguous of a case for Sterling to remain as the main currency of Scotland. When I quizzed Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon on this issue in Kirkcaldy last Tuesday, she gave me a really strong and, frankly, unambiguous case - maybe it should have been her debating Alistair Darling on STV over a fortnight ago.

What also attracted my attention this week was the contrast between many of the polls which illustrate that a No vote was likely and the result of a survey carried out in working class communities by the Radical Independence Campaign. They found that support for a Yes vote stood at 44%, No on 25% and Don't Knows on 31%. Take the latter of the three away and the split would be 63/37 in favour of a Yes vote (link to article from The Scotsman website). 

Now I couldn't source results of another separate survey for those that live in middle class communities, but the possible inequality between those that are well off and those that aren't well off and what both groups of people want for Scotland's future appears very disturbing and divisive to me as far as the future of Scottish society is concerned.

The last thing to consider for now is the fact that this forthcoming referendum is unchartered territory for everybody in Scotland. We have never had a referendum of this kind before and none of us on this earth can really determine what is going to really happen after the result is announced. However, I fear that the political mood of this country will become so toxic that matters could become really unhealthy and it is the responsibility of the politicians to ensure that a sense of calm resumes after the referendum.

The outcome of the vote on September 18th 2014 will go right to the wire. Put it this way, it's like a football cup final - there won't be a draw. And only one side can win this debate.